America Is in a Learning Recession & the Decline Started Long Before COVID

U.S. student reading and math scores have declined nationwide since 2013, new data shows.

For years, the decline in student performance was blamed primarily on the pandemic. New research from Stanford, Harvard, and Dartmouth now shows the problem started long before COVID-19. According to the Education Scorecard project, reading scores declined in 83 percent of U.S. school districts between 2015 and 2025, while math scores declined in 70 percent of districts. Researchers are now describing the trend as a decade-long “learning recession” impacting students across income, racial, and geographic lines. The findings suggest the United States is facing one of the largest sustained academic declines in modern history.

The data shows this is no longer isolated to underfunded or struggling districts. Wealthy districts, suburban districts, and historically high-performing states also experienced major declines in student achievement. In multiple states, students are now performing below where students were a decade ago, erasing years of academic progress. Researchers say the pandemic accelerated the decline, but did not create it. Harvard researcher Thomas Kane described COVID-19 as “the mudslide that followed years of erosion.”

Researchers and educators increasingly point to major cultural and technological shifts that accelerated during the 2010s. Smartphones, social media, short-form content, and constant digital stimulation dramatically changed how students consume information and maintain focus. Nearly half of American teenagers now report being online “almost constantly,” while schools increasingly rely on laptops and tablets beginning in early elementary grades. Educators report declining attention spans, lower reading stamina, reduced persistence, and less time spent reading independently. Nearly one in three teenagers now says they “never or hardly ever” read for fun.

Schools are also responding to the decline by lowering expectations. Educators report assigning fewer full books, simplifying curriculum, and adjusting instruction to match lower student endurance and engagement levels. Researchers warn that these changes may further weaken long-term literacy and critical thinking skills. Carol Jago of the California Reading and Literature Project stated that strong reading ability only develops through consistent reading volume and repetition. Without intervention, experts warn the country risks creating a generation less prepared for higher education, skilled careers, and long-term economic competitiveness.

At the same time, schools are operating under enormous pressure. Teacher burnout remains high, districts across the country continue closing schools and consolidating classrooms, and many educators are being asked to manage larger class sizes with fewer resources. Students are entering classrooms carrying academic gaps, mental health challenges, and reduced attention spans, while teachers are expected to act as educators, counselors, behavioral managers, and support systems simultaneously. The result is a system under strain at nearly every level. America is no longer dealing with a temporary education setback; it is confronting a structural learning decline that has been building for more than a decade.